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Forecast model & key assumptions Every forecast includes explicit documentation of: Key growth drivers and their assumed impact Restraining factors and mitigation scenarios Regulatory assumptions and policy change risk Technology adoption curve parameter Macroeconomic assumptions (GDP growth, inflation, currency) Competitive dynamics and market entry/exit expectations 6

More recent studies, such as a report in the journal Cell Metabolism in 2011, pinpoint a similar figure: 580 days on average

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